A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation by C. Peter Timmer

By C. Peter Timmer

The progressively diminishing position of agriculture on the earth economy_a mostly unperceived, poorly understood, yet profound change_is as transformational for developmental financial proposal as gravity has been for physics. C. Peter Timmer argues that policymakers who forget about this basic shift possibility mismanaging their financial improvement rules, with serious results. The 'structural transformation' of constructing economies has 4 major good points: a falling percentage of agriculture in monetary output and employment; a emerging proportion of city financial job in and glossy prone; the migration of rural employees to city settings; and a demographic transition in beginning and dying charges that often results in a spurt in inhabitants development earlier than a brand new equilibrium is reached. even supposing all constructing economies event those transitions, dealing with the ensuing political outcomes has been an incredible problem for policymakers over the last half-century. attempting to cease the structural transformation easily doesn't paintings. Bolstering the means of the terrible to learn from switch, besides the fact that, does. Investments in human assets, for example_especially in schooling and health_are the main promising ways to easing the transitions of a constructing countryOs structural transformation. Such suggestions require major public-sector assets and coverage help to augment rural productiveness and rely on political procedures which are delicate to the pressures generated through the structural transformation. developing effective coverage mechanisms to steer constructing economies throughout the structural transformation can be a concern of worldwide governments within the twenty-first century. This monograph, an international with no Agriculture, was once the 2007 Henry Wendt Lecture, added on the American firm Institute in Washington, D.C. on October 30, 2007. The Wendt Lecture is brought every year through a student who has made significant contributions to our figuring out of the fashionable phenomenon of globalization and its outcomes for social welfare, executive coverage, and the growth of liberal political associations.

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Indeed, virtually the entire growth experience of modern developed countries has been spent on the convergent path of sectoral labor productivity. This is in sharp contrast to currently developing countries, which are mostly at income levels per capita where sectoral labor productivity is diverging. Divergent Paths There are two ways to think about individual country experiences in the context of the regular patterns of the structural transformation. First, all countries might be “unique,” so that only the aggregate of 26 A WORLD WITHOUT AGRICULTURE countries would actually display a pattern of transformation over time or across incomes.

For Asian countries, the linear term in lnGDPpc is positive, and the quadratic term is negative—just the opposite of the non-Asian sample, signaling that Asian economies tend to employ disproportionately more farm workers in the early stages of development. More critically, the coefficient on the agricultural terms of trade is positive and statistically significant for the Asian sample, whereas it is negative and statistically significant for the non-Asian sample. In this, the Asian pattern contrasts with the overall sample as well.

22 Direct Contribution to Economic Growth via Lewis Linkages. The “Lewis linkages” between agriculture and economic growth provide the nonagricultural sector with labor and capital freed up by higher productivity in the agricultural sector. 24 If labor markets worked perfectly, Johnston-Mellor Environment “Agriculture as a Contributor to Growth”—establish market links with industry; technology and incentives to create a healthy agricultural sector; improve factor markets to mobilize rural resources “Jump Strategy” “Getting Agriculture Moving”—institutional change; new technology; structure of markets and incentives; significant investments in rural infrastructure Policy Settings: Mosher Environment SOURCE: Timmer 1988, 295.

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